Coinbase Institutional: Fed Rate Expectations, Not Binance Hack, Drive Bitcoin’s Recent Decline

Coinbase Institutional said in its weekly report that Bitcoin’s recent decline was driven primarily by shifting Fed policy expectations rather than the Binance hack. October nonfarm payrolls and CPI both exceeded expectations, with markets fully pricing in a 25 bps rate hike in December and 64 bps of hikes over the next 12 months. Bitcoin fell below key support at $73,000, while stablecoin supply contracted by a record $11.5 billion over the past 30 days. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.44 billion in net outflows over the five trading days leading up to Nov. 11, with ETF holders sitting on approximately $12.7 billion in aggregate unrealized losses. Coinbase Institutional warned that a sustained move below $73,000 would significantly increase the likelihood of a decline toward the $66,000–$68,000 support zone.