Bitcoin has risen about 30% since its February 6 low, marking one of its strongest rebounds in recent months. However, on‑chain analyst @Darkfost from CryptoQuant notes that the rally lacks the structural demand necessary to confirm a genuine bullish regime shift. His latest analysis points to an improving market that remains fundamentally fragile.
A Recovery Without Real Demand Support
Despite the price rebound, demand remains relatively weak. This weakness is most visible in Bitcoin’s apparent demand, a metric that tracks whether long‑term holders are absorbing newly issued supply.
- 30‑day apparent demand: –44,700 BTC
- Early April reading: –89,000 BTC (a notable improvement)
- Year‑to‑date trend: Apparent demand has remained negative throughout 2024
According to @Darkfost, this persistent negative demand is the clearest sign that Bitcoin has not yet entered a new structural regime, despite the strong price action.
The February “Demand Spike” Was Misleading
At the end of February, apparent demand briefly flipped positive — but this was a statistical illusion, not a surge in investor appetite. The shift was caused by a sharp drop in BTC issuance, not increased accumulation.
The issuance decline was driven by reduced mining activity, largely due to severe weather conditions in the United States earlier in the year.
Bitcoin’s Price and Derivatives Positioning
Bitcoin’s current market structure shows a clear divergence between price momentum and derivatives sentiment. As of early May 2026, BTC trades near the upper end of its recent range — around $105K to $120K — while cumulative 7‑day funding rates remain elevated, signaling sustained long exposure in perpetual futures markets. The Funding Cumulative 7d metric has oscillated between –400 and +800, reflecting alternating periods of aggressive long positioning and short‑term corrections.
Signs of Improvement — But Not Enough for a Trend Shift
Early signs suggest demand might be leveling out, but @Darkfost points out that a stronger recovery is still needed to keep Bitcoin’s upward momentum going. The market’s getting better — just not solid at its core yet.
The Outlook
Bitcoin’s recent price action might seem promising at first glance, but the demand still tells a more cautious story. As analyst @Darkfost points out, structural demand is still weak, with apparent demand stuck in negative territory. The short-lived positive spike in February was just an issuance quirk, not true accumulation, highlighting how fragile the situation still is. Until demand picks up in a meaningful way, it’s hard to call this a genuine shift. For now, the rally is real — but the foundation isn’t solid yet.
