Nebius Stock Slides on Delayed Microsoft Capacity

TLDR

Nebius stock fell 2.7% in Friday’s premarket trading after losing 16.84% on Thursday.
Management now expects 2026 revenue near the lower end of its 3.0billion–3.4 billion range.
Remaining Microsoft-contracted capacity in New Jersey is scheduled for delivery during the second quarter of 2027.
Nebius shifted its December annual recurring revenue milestone to February 2027.
The company projects $27 billion in 2026 capital expenditure and $40 billion–$45 billion next year.

Nebius (NBIS) shares extended their post-earnings decline Friday as investors questioned delayed AI capacity. The Nasdaq-listed stock fell 2.7% before the November 13 opening, according to Investing.com. That followed a 16.84% drop Thursday, when shares closed at $128.64.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

The pressure followed Nebius’s November 12 disclosure that third-party data-center delays would shift revenue into 2027. Management now expects 2026 revenue near the low end of its $3.0 billion–$3.4 billion range.
Microsoft-Linked Capacity Delays Push Back Revenue
In its shareholder letter, Nebius explained that several colocation projects had slipped into early 2027. These include remaining capacity at its New Jersey site serving Microsoft.
The company expects to deliver more than half of Microsoft’s contracted capacity by year-end. However, remaining tranches are now scheduled for the second quarter of 2027. Nebius attributed the revised schedule to temporary power changes during its Bloom Energy fuel-cell transition.
Management also moved its $7 billion–$9 billion December annual recurring revenue target to February. It now expects February’s figure to exceed $7 billion, before New Jersey reaches full capacity.
The delay relates to deployment timing, rather than an announced Microsoft contract cancellation. Nebius said affected customers had been informed and their plans accommodated.
Rising Investment Requirements Add Pressure
Nebius forecast around $27 billion in 2026 capital expenditure, according to its latest outlook. Its preliminary 2027 spending plan calls for $40 billion.
That spending would precede the full realization of revenue from newly delivered infrastructure. The scale leaves investors watching financing arrangements and delivery schedules alongside sales growth.
CEO Arkady Volozh said customer prepayments on third-quarter agreements covered more than their associated capital expenditure. This measure applies to qualifying agreements, not the company’s entire construction budget.
Nebius estimates prepayments and contract-backed financing could cover 75%–85% of next year’s spending. That remains a management forecast rather than secured financing for every project.
Strong Earnings Contrast With Execution Risks
The company’s SEC earnings release showed quarterly revenue rose 571% to $980.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $465.8 million, compared with a $5.2 million loss a year earlier. However, Nebius still recorded a $37.5 million net loss from continuing operations.
Nebius projects $12 billion–$13 billion in 2027 revenue and pretax breakeven by year-end. Both figures depend on future execution and remain forward-looking estimates.
Earlier coverage of its quarterly results outlined the earnings growth. The latest disclosures sharpen attention on when contracted capacity becomes revenue, and how expansion gets financed.
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