Bitcoin Slips Toward $74K as Fed Hike Odds Hit 96% After Waller

Bitcoin slips toward $74,000 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a December rate hike. Market odds of a 25-basis-point increase surged to 96%.
Bitcoin traded lower on Tuesday, approaching the $74,000 level, as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller voiced clear support for raising interest rates at the December FOMC meeting. The remarks pushed market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike sharply higher and weighed on both crypto and U.S. equity futures.
BTC fell about 1.3% on the day to roughly $74,080 on major exchanges. Nasdaq 100 futures declined around 0.4% ahead of the cash-market open. The move reflected a rapid reassessment of monetary policy expectations after Waller’s comments at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London.
Waller Signals Support for December Tightening
In his speech, Waller stated that he would support a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate at the December 9 FOMC meeting, regardless of Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index release.
“While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting,” he said.
He added that substantially higher inflation than expected could justify “more robust action.” September’s data had already drawn a harsh assessment from the governor: “Let’s just say it. September’s inflation data were bad. There was no silver lining.” He specifically referenced the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which rose 0.5% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year.
Following the remarks, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point December hike jumping from roughly 76% to 96%. Some reports noted even higher instantaneous pricing near 97%.
CPI Data and Limited Visibility Cloud the Outlook
October CPI figures were scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday. Economists expected a 0.3% month-over-month increase, softer than September’s 0.6% rise that was driven in part by higher fuel costs. Core measures were also anticipated to moderate.
Visibility remains constrained. Due to the 2025 U.S. government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing only month-over-month statistics for the latest period. Annual comparisons are unavailable because comparable data from the prior year was not collected. This limited dataset reduces the usual clarity markets rely on when interpreting inflation trends.
Higher interest rates typically act as a headwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin, by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and tightening financial conditions. The immediate market reaction—softness in both crypto and equity futures—was consistent with that dynamic.
Broader Implications for Crypto Markets
Bitcoin’s slide toward $74,000 comes against a backdrop of recent ETF outflows and subdued risk appetite. Sustained expectations of tighter policy can prolong periods of consolidation or further downside if liquidity conditions continue to tighten. Conversely, any dovish surprise in the CPI data or subsequent Fed commentary could provide short-term relief.

For now, Waller’s comments have clarified one near-term path: a December rate increase is the base case for markets. Bitcoin traders are navigating the $74,000 zone with elevated policy uncertainty and incomplete inflation data as key inputs. The combination leaves price action sensitive to both the CPI print and any further signals from Fed officials in the weeks ahead.