Bitcoin (BTC) in Danger Zone: What Can Prevent Another 20% Crash?

The primary cryptocurrency has slipped nearly 10% over the past month, casting doubt on the prospects of a near-term bull run while raising concerns about further downside.
Here’s how some popular analysts view the situation.
What Can Stop the Freefall?
BTC ended the business week above $75K, but the new one started with more pain for the bulls as the asset briefly tumbled to roughly $73,500. As of press time, it trades around $74,700, and some market observers see this as a dangerous zone that could precede a deeper correction. Among them is X user Friedrich, who claimed that BTC must reclaim $77,600 or risk dropping to as low as $60,000.
“Next few weeks will give a clear signal where we’re heading. Any close above 77.6K is a win for bulls, and you can long towards a new ATH from there,” he added.
Ted noted that BTC closed its fifth straight week in the red and also fell below the 50-week moving average (MA). He argued that if the asset doesn’t reclaim the important level “soon,” it may drop to $70,000. CRYPTO XLARGE also identified the plunge below the 50-week MA and presented two scenarios.
The bullish one includes a quick reclaim of the zone, which would signal a potential bear trap and suggest the breakdown was designed to shake out weak hands. On the other hand, the analyst warned that another weekly close below this level would increase the downside risk, with the low $60K region becoming a key area to watch.
Ali Martinez also weighed in recently. He suggested that BTC appears to be trading within a channel on the three-day chart, with the key level being its mid-range near $73,000.
“If Bitcoin loses that support, the channel’s lower boundary around $60,000 becomes the next area I’m watching.”
The Silver Lining
X user Wealthmanager disagreed with the overwhelmingly pessimistic predictions, saying that in a few weeks many people will wish they had gone long on BTC at current levels. The analyst noted that more and more crypto enthusiasts have been calling for a return to the bear market, presenting this as a bullish signal. The crypto market is indeed unique and tends to defy broader expectations.
According to Wealthmanager, a drop below the $73,000 level would invalidate the bullish thesis, but the analyst believes that outcome is highly unlikely.
The declining amount of BTC stored on crypto exchanges supports the optimistic outlook. CryptoQuant’s data shows that the figure has fallen to around 2.82 million coins, the lowest since May. This suggests investors have moved away from centralized platforms and toward self-custody, reducing immediate selling pressure.
BTC Exchange Netflow, Source: CryptoQuant
However, the recent $6.3 billion Binance hack may have undermined trust in crypto exchanges, which could have contributed to the trend.
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