Arthur Hayes: AI Giants’ Equity Dilution May Pressure Stock Prices, Bearish for Bitcoin in the Short Term, Bullish if Central Banks Step In Long Term

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest article “D is for Dilution” that large-scale share unlocks and equity dilution after IPOs of AI giants such as SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could pressure their stock prices and raise debt financing costs across the AI industry. He estimates that early IPO investors in Anthropic could face up to 83% equity dilution by June 2027.Hayes believes that a decline in AI stock prices could weaken bank credit expansion, leading to a contraction in dollar liquidity and weighing on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. His investment firm Maelstrom will remain on the sidelines until liquidity conditions clearly improve. However, he expects that if the AI industry faces a systemic crisis, central banks may ultimately respond with monetary easing, which would be bullish for Bitcoin in the long run.